Probability of a Major Hurricane Hitting the Caribbean Rises to 52% This Season

Major hurricane risk rises to 52%

Atlantic waters are warmer

More active hurricane season

According to EFE, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean has risen to a concerning 52%.

This was reported Wednesday by Colorado State University (CSU), one of the most respected meteorological institutions in the United States.

The new forecast exceeds the historical average, which stands at 47% for the Caribbean.

The report also states that the upcoming hurricane season is expected to be slightly more active than usual.

The Caribbean Faces an Intense 2025 Hurricane Season

Probability of major hurricane hitting the Caribbean rises https://t.co/EmXJiCo6A9

— Aristegui Noticias (@AristeguiOnline) August 6, 2025

The Atlantic 2025 hurricane season officially began on June 1 and runs through November 30.

During this period, experts project a total of 16 named storms.

Of those, eight could become hurricanes with sustained winds over 74 mph (119 km/h).

At least three are expected to become major hurricanes—Category 3, 4, or 5.

Warm Atlantic Raises the Risk

Probability of a Major Hurricane Hitting the Caribbean Rises – PHOTO: SHUTTERSTOCK

A major hurricane involves sustained winds of at least 111 mph (179 km/h).

The probability of one of these storms making landfall on the U.S. mainland now stands at 48%.

This is also higher than the historical average for the country, which is 43%.

For the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, the estimated probability is 24%.

Heat Favors Stronger Hurricanes

Major Hurricane Hitting the Caribbean Risk Rises – PHOTO: SHUTTERSTOCK

For the southern region—from northwest Florida to Brownsville, Texas—the risk is 31%.

CSU bases its models on various climate variables, but one key factor this year is ocean temperature.

According to the report, both the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean are registering above-average temperatures.

This condition increases the likelihood of hurricane formation and intensification.

Warm Waters Fuel Cyclones

Warm water acts as fuel for these storms.

When the ocean is warmer, atmospheric pressure drops and instability increases.

Both factors directly contribute to the development of more intense hurricanes.

In addition, a possible reduction in wind shear is expected in August in the Caribbean.

Major Hurricanes Have Already Claimed Lives

Wind shear—the variation in wind speed or direction over short distances—typically inhibits hurricane formation.

If wind shear weakens, the environment becomes even more favorable for intense storms.

So far this season, several named storms have already formed: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter.

Chantal was the first to make landfall in the United States.

Billions in Damage and Over 250 Deaths

This storm caused at least two deaths in North Carolina.

The report also notes that last year’s season was particularly deadly.

In total, more than 250 people died in the United States due to hurricanes in 2024.

Material damages exceeded $120 billion nationwide.

Preparedness Is Key in the Face of Major Hurricanes

These figures reinforce the importance of being prepared as hurricane activity increases.

Meteorological and civil protection authorities urge the public to follow forecasts and keep emergency plans up to date.

CSU experts will continue monitoring Atlantic conditions and will release regular updates.

The coming weeks will be crucial in determining how this season will unfold.